Balla Maggero
Oceano. & Marine Department, Meteorological Services,KENYA
Title: An efficient and generally applicable coastal ocean prediction system
Biography
Biography: Balla Maggero
Abstract
An efficient and generally applicable coastal ocean prediction system must take into account the wide variety of coastal phenomena (currents, waves, tides, etc.) and forcing (buoyancy, wind and external) which occur over the multiplicity of time and space scales. The observational network will generally consist of a mix of platforms and sensors with real time telemetry deployed in nested domains of increasing resolutions. The set of coupled interdisciplinary models for assimilating the data will have compatible two-way nested computational domains. Prediction systems should accelerate scientific research progress in the multi scale intermittent ocean and important practical application areas include management of the multiuse Coastal zone, Naval and Marine operations. Physical and biogeochemical ocean dynamics can be highly intermittent and variable, and involve multiple interactive scales in 2-D feedbacks. In general, the oceanic fields, processes and interactions that matter thus vary in time and space. These processes are importantly dominated by strong sporadic events that are erratic on spatiotemporal scale. Understanding non-linear dynamics specification of actual events and identifying important additional as yet unknowns provides a framework for realistic representation and prediction of the interdisciplinary coastal ocean. For efficient forecasting, the structures and parameters of models must evolve and respond dynamically to new data added into the executing prediction system. The conceptual basis of this adaptive modelling and corresponding computational scheme is the subject of this presentation.